Commodities Market Analysis – US Crude Oil

*A live market update explaining the US Oil charts and potential trading opportunities*

I am going to use this blog post to talk you through my analysis of the US Crude oil commodity markets, explain where I think price might go over the next few days/weeks and show you my ideal trading opportunities.

As always, all my technical analysis is done using the TradingView platform. It offers all the functionality I need for charting and includes live price feeds and fundamental news updates. Click on the link below to check out their platform and try it for yourself.

Let’s start with the weekly timeframe chart to see where the key price support/resistance zones are.

US Crude Oil weekly timeframe chart

I have a few important zones marked on my US crude oil trading chart. The main one is the current price level around $52 which has provided support multiple times over the past 12 months. I am looking to trade this current support zone and bet on price bouncing from this zone.

The chart below is the daily timeframe chart.

US Crude Oil daily timeframe chart

On Thursday last week there was a strong bullish wick rejection candle closure. However, Friday showed less signs of buyers willing to buy Crude at this level and I think we may begin to see a few days of waiting whilst the buyers come in to the market or the support zone is broken.

If this $52 support zone does hold then I will look for price to make its way up to the previous levels of resistance. The first is around $62 per barrel where multiple price reactions have occur din previous months.

If that zone breaks then the upper resistance at $65 would be a good longer term target profit.

Market Fundamentals:

On Wednesday (5th Feb) we have the USD Crude Oil inventories data for Jan 2020. This will likely move the markets in the following ways.

  1. Inventories higher than expected = US Crude Down
  2. Inventories lower than expected = US Crude Up

There is also some medium level employment and trade balance data due on Wednesday and the monthly ISM on manufacturing data which can move the US dollar if results are unexpected.

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is on Friday which again, can move the US dollar which would effect the price of Crude.

Alternative options for US Crude price movements:

US Crude Oil daily timeframe chart

If price breaks below the $52 support zone then there isn’t much in the way of support until $43/$42 per barrel. There is a longer term bullish trendline that could provide some support and this can be seen on the chart above and the weekly timeframe chart at the beginning of this blog post.

Rejections of the bullish trendline could provide a good long term long position but only if it holds strong. If the bullish grenadine is broken then we could quite easily see price reach $42 per barrel.

Useful Links:

All my technical analysis is done using the TradingView platform. You can get access via the link below.

My preferred broker of choice is IC Markets. Low spreads and trading costs really help long term profitability. A link to their site is below.

FTMO Trader Funding Programme.

Thanks for reading and please don’t forget to LIKE, SHARE and FOLLOW my blog to stay up to date with the latest market analysis and trading education posts.

DISCLAIMER: None of the information posted on this site is to be considered investment/financial advice. Trading is high risk and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.

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