FX Market Analysis – NZDUSD October ’19

*Technical analysis and multiple timeframe trading opportunities on the NZDUSD FX currency pair*

This blog post is my full technical analysis breakdown of the NZDUSD FX currency pair. I will show you my complete chart analysis across multiple timeframes, explain my current trade positions open on the currency pair and talk you through how I plan to trade it in the coming days and weeks.

As always, all my technical analysis is done using the brilliant TradingView charting software which I use everyday and highly recommend it. You can sign up to use it via the link below.

https://tradingview.go2cloud.org/SH3bP

Let’s get right in to it and I will start by showing you the higher timeframe weekly price chart.

NZDUSD weekly timeframe chart

There are two reasons why you should always check the higher timeframe charts when doing your technical analysis. The first is so you can make sure you trading positions are on side with the higher timeframe trend to give you the best chance of success. The second reason is to help you plan your trade exit which is a hugely important part of trading. Where you exit a trade is where you make your profit and how much you make, not where you enter it.

The NZDUSD weekly chart above shows me 2 things. Price has reached a previous support zone at 0.62500 and it is now creating a “double bottom” which shows it has potential to bounce from here. I can see this because off the 3 previous bullish weekly candles that have closed and the multiple wick rejections of the zone.

I can also see that price is making a down trend on this timeframe because the last 2 waves were a lower high and a higher low. Price is also below the weekly 50ema so this may impact the potential profit of my long positions in the long term but they are around 400 pips away which leaves me plenty of room.

Let’s look at the daily chart next.

NZDUSD daily timeframe chart

I have added some more technical details on to this chart. Firstly, we have the bearish daily trendline that has now been broken and almost retested on the last wick test of the support zone. You can also more clearly see the multiple tests and rejections of the 0.62500 support zone on this chart.

I have shown the multiple support/resistance zones on this chart which I plan to use as areas of interest and will look to lock in some profits at these levels if price rejects them. As with the weekly chart, price is residing below the daily 50 EMA so I will look to see if it does break that next and if it does, a daily higher high should be made and then price can climb up to new monthly highs.

NZDUSD 4 hour timeframe chart

The 4hr timeframe chart is what I used for my first long position entry. The chart above is a screenshot taken as at this afternoon but prior to this was waiting for the higher low to form and price to bounce off the shaded support zone.

This shaded zone is produced by using the previous low before the low wick rejection of the support zone and the retest of the bearish trendline that was broken. I was also predicting a higher low to be made after a higher high was made showing this trend was potentially going to reverse now.

For those of you who like to trade patterns, this is a near perfect example of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. So I have labelled this on the chart for you to see.

NZDUSD 4 hour timeframe chart
(With long position)

The chart above shows my current long position that I have open and running on the NZDUSD FX currency pair. I bought in at the shaded zone with a conservative stop loss below the zone and the next fibonacci retracement level. This way, my position will still be safe if price tried to retest the 0.62500 support zone once more.

You can track the progress of this trade position live via the TradingView platform by clicking on the link below.

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/BbX5GTVj-NZDUSD-Long-Trade-TL-BREAK-AND-H-S/

Future Price Predictions:

My first prediction is that price will now climb up to my first profit target zone at 0.64500 where I will look for a break or bounce of the level. It is a previous daily resistance zone and it also aligns with the fibonacci -0.618 extension level on the current 4hr bullish trend.

If this zone is broken then I will look to continue to buy in on any significant pullbacks and use the 4hr timeframe and analysis to increase my long position exposure. I will then trade this pair up to the weekly 50 EMA and the next resistance zones I marked on the daily timeframe chart.

  • Resistance 1 = Daily 50 EMA
  • Resistance Zone 2 = 0.64500
  • Resistance Zone 3 = 0.65
  • Longer Term Target = 0.67800 and Weekly 50 EMA
NZDUSD daily timeframe chart
(with long position and profit targets)

DISCLAIMER: None of the information posted on this site is to be considered investment/financial advice. Trading is high risk and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.

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