FX Market Analysis – AUDUSD July ’19

*Live market analysis of the AUDUSD FX currency pair!*

This is going to a be quick blog post to show you why I am looking at entering a long position on the Aussie Dollar fx currency pair. I will show you the daily and weekly timeframe charts as this is going to be a long term “buy & hold” style trade if it goes to plan.

Let’s look at the weekly timeframe chart first.

AUDUSD weekly timeframe chart

Just from looking at the weekly price chart for AUDUSD it is clear to see that the currency pair is very “oversold” and has been pushed downwards since early 2018. This has driven price in to a major previous support zone at 0.68500 that has been strong since 2016!

I have marked this support zone on the chart above with the bottom blue line and as you can see, it has rejected 3 previous tests of the zone with the 4th and last tests being this year.

The last 2 weekly candle closures have also been nice and bullish so I am hoping this is a sign of more buying pressure to come.

Let’s look at the daily timeframe chart and the near term swing trade trend that I am looking to capitalise on.

AUDUSD daily timeframe chart

As always, I like to keep things nice and simple and the chart reflects this. I am only using my brain and a trendline to see that the current trend is now bullish and price is making clear higher highs and higher lows.

By joining the previous 2 lows with a trendline it is easy to predict where the next higher low might form which is where price is right now. At the bullish trendline. I can also use the Elliot wave theory to see that we have had waves 1 – 4 completed on the current trend and therefore a reversal and final 5th bullish wave would be a high probability to complete the 5 wave pattern.

By applying the fibonacci retracement tool to the previous swing high and swing low I can produce the retracement levels where price should find support. Although the levels don’t align with the trendline on this occasion, I can use the next retracement level below price (0.786) to use as an area to keep my stop loss below. Therefore if price was to break lower and perhaps cause a “fake out” then I know my stop loss should be safe below that potential support.

Another benefit of using the fibonacci tool is for the extension levels to provide a profit target for where the new higher high might appear. This would then be a good place to take profits and exit the trade.

By simply buying here at the trendline with a stop loss below the 0.786 which is 25 pips away and a target profit at the fib -0.27 extension level (165 pips), this very simple swing trades has a potential return of over 6.5R.

As always, you can track this trade live via my TradingView profile which can be found on the link below.

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/XU88pLqK-AUDUSD-Long-Trade-CB-Trend-Strategy/

I do highly recommend the TradingView software for technical analysis, it does everything I need and more. Thanks for reading and please don’t forget to LIKE, SHARE and FOLLOW my blog šŸ™‚

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